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Adam Rothwell
- Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Nobody knows. That’s for two reasons. First, there aren’t any reliable statistics which measure public giving – so giving may be going down as you read this, or it may not be. Second, no charity has experienced the sort of downturn we’re going through at the moment, which makes predicting the future extremely hard.However, neither of these points has prevented fundraisers from gazing into their crystal balls.
Fundraising agency Bluefrog has done some particularly interesting work in this area. Back in 2007, it interviewed a bunch of ‘mid-value’ donors (who gave between £100 and £1000 a year) to understand what made them give. In October, it went back to them to ask if their giving would be affected by the recession.
The result? Most donors said they had no plans to cut back at present, but said the chance of supporting a new charity was highly unlikely.
Another agency, Open Fundraising, has also had a bash at predicting donors’ future behaviour. Taking their video-camera to the streets of Covent Garden, Open discovered that most people also didn’t have plans to cut back at the moment – though they might do in future.
Between them, these studies suggest that established, big-name charities which work in the UK won’t have much trouble dealing with the downturn, though they might take a moderate fundraising hit. But small, new, charities look to be in for a hard time, starting now.
Via Fundraising Recession Watch
I wrote a piece a couple of months ago covering the possible effect of economic downturn on the third sector. It highlights research on private company donations and individual donations which may prove insightful for researchers. I hope it has some use:
http://mrgrimsdalekingheronandmobius.blogspot.com/2008/06/weathering-sto...
Surveys of donor attitudes will only go so far. Realities like unemployment, bankruptcy, falling corporate profits, falling house prices etc may be more measurable and more important.
It is quite likely people will intend to give but find themselves unable to do so. I also think we have not seen anything yet. There tends to be a delay in these effects and I think 2009 and 2010 will answer these questions.
Doug
Because of the differences we are seeing in recruitment (not so good) and warm appeals (very good), we’ve commissioned a piece of research into attitudes to giving that has an angle on currently supported charities versus new ones. It will available for free download at www.bluefroglondon.com next week – w/c 17th November. I’ll give you a heads up as soon as it is available.
Mark
Have you tried the groups associated with the Institute of Fundraising?
There are several email groups. Whether they meet your requirements or would help is a different matter.
Martin
Many thanks for the mention Adam. We love a bit of vox-popping although we'd never hold it up as serious research – let alone claim that we're 'predicting the future' as you generously/ironically suggest!
We're toying with the idea of building an online survey to get a more robust feel for what people are thinking and feeling - if we can find a willing partner out there with a decent sized email list and the necessary permissions.
But let's face it, come January we'll all have a pretty good idea of what's going on when those Christmas appeal results are finalised...
Good luck everyone.
James
At Open we're building an online survey
... that where charities have strong, existing relationships with donors, these relationships are likely to be important enough to the donors that they won't consider opting out of them lightly.
I know that my parents recently reviewed their 'giving portfolio' in preparation for their retirement, with a view to making some cuts. They told me that they had concluded that the beneficiaries of SightSavers, Plan, Wateraid and some of the other causes they support need the money more than they do, so didn't cancel any of their Direct Debits (I didn't realise until quite recently how generous they are, and they have since become a really useful focus group of two for me!).
For people that have this degree of 'buy in' to the causes they support, it's highly likely that they will weigh it up against their own needs in a similar way. And, of course, some causes have an element of self-interest for donors, too, which will come into the picture,as will personal experience of a particular issue.
I believe that good stewardship - regular updates, transparency, personalised communications, proper thanking etc. - is *such* an important factor in keeping your donors on board, and it's an area most charities could brush up on in general, recession or not.
Incidentally, my parents were highly unimpressed when CRUK invited them to a champagne reception to thank them for their support - and felt it was a totally inappropriate use of the money they, and other supporters, donate.
I am also of the opionion that acquiring new donors is one of the areas most likely to be hit, and hit first - that's across the board, with individuals, corporates and trusts.
Yes, fundraisers will think about how things impact income.
Many predicitions will be wrong. But avoiding any planning is worse.
So we plan for what can happen and try and avoid some problems or look for ways to change income generation to offset problems.
Some income types don't get impacted in the same way.
Lottery income? Apart from Olympic money reducing what can be awarded, does lottery income go up in a recession?
Charitable trusts? Changes in the economy can take a while to filter down to how money is spent, but the nature of investments means income can drop in general anyway.
Plenty of doom and gloom about. Isn't it exciting, this opportunity for charities to make better use of their resources and some make a bigger impact for individuals?
Martin
that it's going to be a tough time for many charities - especially the charities whose main demographic of support is young families - think Save the Children.
Also, the cancer charities who have many supporters who will either be on a pension or planning to be one shortly.
Charities will be affected by the recession, everyone will be affected by the recession and as the current one is a global phenomenon, teamed with a fundamental upheaval of the global finance markets no one can predict the extent or nature of the impact. Those people saying we will be out of this recession within 18 months are often the ones with the biggest portfolios that have lost the most value. Not the most useful statement on donor attitudes I know, but as useful as the voxpops video. Any students of body language or poker fiends would have seen some fibbing going on in the videos. Not malicious mind, just embarrassed people being put on the spot (sounds like Adam being confronted by a street fundraiser anyone?).While I hate to agree with Adam, charities need evidence (cold, hard facts and statistics) to get through this recession. Before we even get to the fundraising side of things, how is the global recession going to impact on the remit of the charity? Mostly it will have a negative impact, but by how much and consequently who much more does the charity need to raise? Without knowing this you cannot "recession proof" your fundraising irrelevant of what advice the fundraising recession watch offers.And this evidence has an added benefit of supporting a charity to tell their donors, be they individuals, corporates or major donors, just how crucial their ongoing support is and why they need to give more.The statement being tossed around at the moment by many an agency: "Good fundraisers raise more money in a recession. Bad fundraisers use it as an excuse" is missing the point. Bad fundraising often occurs when fundraisers don’t have the evidence, the need, the case for support because the charity cannot provide the stats.The charities that will raise less are the ones who cannot justify their existence. Maybe this recession will expose these organisations and natural selection will take place. You want to recession proof your fundraising? Start with your organisations reporting. catman